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Assignment 3: Conceptual Model PaperAnalyze the statement as the consumption of ice cream increasesso do the instances ofdrowning and develop a conceptual model for it.Write a 23 page paper including the following details:Develop three scenarios to explain this phenomenon.Consider and justify a probability for each scenario beingtrue.Present the paper in Microsoft Office Word document format. Namethe fileM4_A3_LastName_ConceptualModelPaper.doc and submit it to theM4: Assignment 3 Dropbox by Monday November 22 2010.Assignment 3 Grading CriteriaAnalyzed the statement as the consumption of ice creamincreases so do the instances of drowning and developed aconceptual model for it.Included three scenarios to explain the phenomenon.Considered and justified a probability for each scenario beingtrue.