U.S. Domestic steel prices forecasting

Identify a variable of interest: U.S. Domestic steel prices.
Carry out an extensive research to identify 3-5 explanatory variables which may potentially impact the future changes in the identified variable of interest. examples:
1. Unemployment
2. car sales or car manufacturing
3. construction or infrastructure
4. oil prices

Financial Forecasting and Behavioral Finance Group Project on Financial Forecasting

 
The purpose of this project is to solidify your concepts on the principles of financial forecasting. This assignment involves conducting extensive research, gathering historical data and using statistical software to generate forecasts. You are required to perform the following tasks:
 

  1. Identify a variable of interest (avoid stock prices, interest rates, currency values, gold, real estate and oil prices.) Explore variables such as company specific financials (output, sales, salaries, free cash flows, inventory, receivables, overheads, etc.), retail sales, local unemployment, rental market, electricity production/consumption, airline travel, sports forecasting, other microeconomic variables,

 

  1. Carry out an extensive research to identify 3-5 explanatory variables which may potentially impact the future changes in the identified variable of interest. You should be able to justify the following: (i) why and how the explanatory variables may uniquely impact the variable of interest (ii) whether the explanatory variables are measurable at the time the forecast is made. What do you know and when will you know it?

 

  1. Gather historical data on all the variables for at least 100 observations. Use a statistical software (preferably spreadsheet) to conduct the following analysis:
    1. Perform data visualization analysis
    2. Perform correlation analysis
    3. Estimate multiple regression and interpret the parameters
    4. Generate forecasts for the future periods
    5. Perform forecast validation

 
 

  1. The FRED (http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/tags/series) and the UHD library (http://library.uhd.edu/c.php?g=356697&p=2405882) contain several economic and financial datasets. Use a valid source for your research (academic journals, news magazine, business news, UHD library etc.) on the choice of explanatory

 
 
Each group is required to submit the following:

  • Report
  • Power Point of Presentation
  • Spreadsheet file

 
 

Suggested Layout of the Presentation/Report

Recommended Duration for the Presentation: 10 minutes
 
 
Your report and presentation should include the following:

  1. Importance of the variable of interest – why it is relevant in the real world business?
  2. Rationale for choosing the explanatory variables – why and how each explanatory variable may uniquely impact the variable of interest (What do you know?)
  3. Demonstrate that the explanatory variables would be measurable at the time of forecast

(When will you know it?)

  1. Analysis of data transformation, visualization and
  2. Interpretation of regression parameters, forecasted values and validation results

 
 

Grading Rubric

 

Importance of the variable of interest 15%
Rationale for choosing the explanatory variables – What do you know? 30%
Demonstrate that variables are measurable in time – When will you know it? 20%
Analysis of data transformation, visualization and correlations 20%
Regression parameters interpretation, forecasted values and validation results 15%

 

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